NZ GDP Preview: June Quarter 2024

Economic Overview

New Zealand's economy is projected to grow by 1.4% in the June quarter of 2024, according to the latest forecast from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). This would represent a slight slowdown from the 1.7% growth recorded in the March quarter of 2024.

The RBNZ's forecast is based on a number of factors, including continued strength in the global economy, rising commodity prices, and a weaker New Zealand dollar. However, the bank also notes that there are some risks to the outlook, including the potential for a global economic slowdown and a further increase in interest rates.

Key Drivers of Growth

The key drivers of growth in the June quarter of 2024 are expected to be:

• Strong global demand for New Zealand's exports
• Rising commodity prices
• A weaker New Zealand dollar
• Continued growth in the tourism sector

These factors are expected to offset the impact of rising interest rates and a slowdown in the housing market.

Risks to the Outlook

There are a number of risks to the RBNZ's growth forecast, including:

• A global economic slowdown
• A further increase in interest rates
• A sharp decline in the housing market
• A deterioration in the terms of trade

If any of these risks materialize, it could lead to a slowdown in economic growth in the June quarter of 2024.